Crude Oil Futures Update

News & commentary on Crude Oil Futures and the Energy Futures markets including Crude Oil WTI, Crude Oil Brent, Heating Oil, Gasoline RBOB, Natural Gas & more.

Crude Oil Futures Update is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on crude oil and the energy futures markets including Crude Oil WTI, Crude Oil Brent, Heating Oil, Gasoline RBOB, Ethanol and more.

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Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss.  These recommendations are a solicitation for entering into derivatives transactions.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying derivatives discussed.  From time to time persons affiliated with Zaner, or its associated companies, may have positions in recommended and other derivatives.


OPTIONS PLAY: COULD THIS BE THE END OF THE CRUDE OIL RUN?

Posted on 4/22/2014 9:38:55 AM by: Matt McKinney, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0115.

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

 

OPTIONS PLAY: COULD THIS BE THE END OF THE CRUDE OIL RUN?

JULY CRUDE OIL HAS SOLD OFF HERE BREAKING BELOW CRITICAL SUPPORT ACCORDING TO MY TECHNICALS.

 

Fundamentally, crude oil supplies here in the U.S. could climb again for the 13th out of the last 14 weeks according to a Bloomberg report today (4/22/14). The article makes a great case for bearish fundamentals stating that, "....inventories increased 3 million barrels last week according to a Bloomberg survey. Supplies grew to 394.1 million in the week ended April 11, the highest level since June 2013, the EIA, the Energy Department's statistical arm, said last week."

I have felt that for a long time crude oil prices have been artificially pushed higher buy trader's in the futures markets. Whether that be hedge funds, institutions, or large speculators crude oil prices at $100/barrel really are not supported by the fundamentals.

Maybe this time the market will start making a little more sense based on the basic law of economics, supply and demand. Which I believe should be more like the $65-$75 range, not $100/barrel.

 

 

DAILY JULY CRUDE OIL FUTURES CHART

Technically, on this May daily crude oil futures chart I have applied my favorite technical indicators like the 9, 20, and the 50 day SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGES (SMA's), the BOLLINGER BANDS (BB's, light blue shaded area), VOLUME, and CANDLESTICKS (green and red bars, where each bar represents a day).

Technically, my favorite indicators show me that the May futures crude oil market was in a "Super-Trend" up. This happens when the 9 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, red line) crosses up and over the 20 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, green line). Well, that has been going on now for about the last 10 days until today when he market fell almost $2/barrel forcing the price well below the 9 day SMA.

Now we have a change in trend according to my technicals which means we are no longer in a "Super-Trend" up, especially if we close down here. This leaves the next area of support at the 20 day SMA (green line) at around $100.40/barrel. That's not to far away.

 

 

 

 OPTION PLAY:

Since, I am now bearish on this market there could be several ways to play this market with options and one could be to buy straight put options or bear put spreads in a 3 to 1 ratio with a put for a hedge or "insurance" in case the trend changes on a dime and the market falls. Another potential play could be to sell calls or bull call spreads again with protection maybe in the form of a futures contract or with other option plays. I also believe a good way to manage risk when collecting premium could be having a solid number at which to exit the trade.

Remember, when you sell naked options you have unlimited risk and should have a "well funded" account of risk capital. For exact details on months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com

 

 

 FREE QUOTE- "You may have to fight a battle more than once to win it." -Margaret Thatcher

 

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS COMMISSIONS.


NO UPADATE TODAY MORE COMPUTER PROBLEMS

Posted on 4/22/2014 6:09:02 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

API ENERGY STOCKS

THE NEXT BULL MARKET IN THE ENERGY COMPLEX SHOULD BE NATURAL GAS. PLEASE CALL FOR THE REASONS WHY IN MY OPINION. 

Higher for the natural gas while lower for crude and heating oil along with the rbob. By not writing my comments for what e ever reason lately, I have had changes in my signals not seen by you. Therefore, I will be catching up today. Crude continues to rally getting near its highs. You could say I missed this one actually. Anyway , no signal for now. However, it did make its best high since the beginning of March before settling lower in reversal type action with good support, to start with, under 1020. The heat continues to look the most bearish of the three energies but a close over 29600 would probably give me a buy signal. Still, the heat has been trading between 280 to 310 since last July. The rbob continues to look strong since April 3rd breaking out of its resistance on Wednesday and giving me a BUY SIGNAL. Natural gas gave me a BUY SIGNAL with its best high and close since late February along with turning good resistance into support from 460 down to the 430 area. THE FUTURE FOR GAS COULD CONTINUE TO BE VERY BULLISH DOWN THE ROAD. BUY SIGNALS FOR THE RBOB AND NATURAL GAS. SELL SIGNAL FOR HEATING OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS!  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

crude

 

 

 

 


NO UPADATE TODAY MORE COMPUTER PROBLEMS

Posted on 4/22/2014 6:08:52 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

API ENERGY STOCKS

THE NEXT BULL MARKET IN THE ENERGY COMPLEX SHOULD BE NATURAL GAS. PLEASE CALL FOR THE REASONS WHY IN MY OPINION. 

Higher for the natural gas while lower for crude and heating oil along with the rbob. By not writing my comments for what e ever reason lately, I have had changes in my signals not seen by you. Therefore, I will be catching up today. Crude continues to rally getting near its highs. You could say I missed this one actually. Anyway , no signal for now. However, it did make its best high since the beginning of March before settling lower in reversal type action with good support, to start with, under 1020. The heat continues to look the most bearish of the three energies but a close over 29600 would probably give me a buy signal. Still, the heat has been trading between 280 to 310 since last July. The rbob continues to look strong since April 3rd breaking out of its resistance on Wednesday and giving me a BUY SIGNAL. Natural gas gave me a BUY SIGNAL with its best high and close since late February along with turning good resistance into support from 460 down to the 430 area. THE FUTURE FOR GAS COULD CONTINUE TO BE VERY BULLISH DOWN THE ROAD. BUY SIGNALS FOR THE RBOB AND NATURAL GAS. SELL SIGNAL FOR HEATING OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS!  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

crude

 

 

 

 


Natural gas buy signal

Posted on 4/21/2014 1:19:49 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

SEE CHART

 


NO UPADATE TODAY

Posted on 4/21/2014 7:47:17 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

API ENERGY STOCKS

THE NEXT BULL MARKET IN THE ENERGY COMPLEX SHOULD BE NATURAL GAS. PLEASE CALL FOR THE REASONS WHY IN MY OPINION. 

Higher for the natural gas while lower for crude and heating oil along with the rbob. By not writing my comments for what e ever reason lately, I have had changes in my signals not seen by you. Therefore, I will be catching up today. Crude continues to rally getting near its highs. You could say I missed this one actually. Anyway , no signal for now. However, it did make its best high since the beginning of March before settling lower in reversal type action with good support, to start with, under 1020. The heat continues to look the most bearish of the three energies but a close over 29600 would probably give me a buy signal. Still, the heat has been trading between 280 to 310 since last July. The rbob continues to look strong since April 3rd breaking out of its resistance on Wednesday and giving me a BUY SIGNAL. Natural gas gave me a BUY SIGNAL with its best high and close since late February along with turning good resistance into support from 460 down to the 430 area. THE FUTURE FOR GAS COULD CONTINUE TO BE VERY BULLISH DOWN THE ROAD. BUY SIGNALS FOR THE RBOB AND NATURAL GAS. SELL SIGNAL FOR HEATING OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS!  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

 

 


NO UPADATE TODAY

Posted on 4/21/2014 7:47:07 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

API ENERGY STOCKS

THE NEXT BULL MARKET IN THE ENERGY COMPLEX SHOULD BE NATURAL GAS. PLEASE CALL FOR THE REASONS WHY IN MY OPINION. 

Higher for the natural gas while lower for crude and heating oil along with the rbob. By not writing my comments for what e ever reason lately, I have had changes in my signals not seen by you. Therefore, I will be catching up today. Crude continues to rally getting near its highs. You could say I missed this one actually. Anyway , no signal for now. However, it did make its best high since the beginning of March before settling lower in reversal type action with good support, to start with, under 1020. The heat continues to look the most bearish of the three energies but a close over 29600 would probably give me a buy signal. Still, the heat has been trading between 280 to 310 since last July. The rbob continues to look strong since April 3rd breaking out of its resistance on Wednesday and giving me a BUY SIGNAL. Natural gas gave me a BUY SIGNAL with its best high and close since late February along with turning good resistance into support from 460 down to the 430 area. THE FUTURE FOR GAS COULD CONTINUE TO BE VERY BULLISH DOWN THE ROAD. BUY SIGNALS FOR THE RBOB AND NATURAL GAS. SELL SIGNAL FOR HEATING OIL. CALL FOR DETAILS!  For additional charts, quotes, news, commentary & more, sign-up for a FREE 30-day trial to Market head.Com

 

 


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