Crude Oil Futures Update

News & commentary on Crude Oil Futures and the Energy Futures markets including Crude Oil WTI, Crude Oil Brent, Heating Oil, Gasoline RBOB, Natural Gas & more.

Crude Oil Futures Update is a blog dedicated to bringing updates, news and commentary on crude oil and the energy futures markets including Crude Oil WTI, Crude Oil Brent, Heating Oil, Gasoline RBOB, Ethanol and more.

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Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss.  These recommendations are a solicitation for entering into derivatives transactions.  All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying derivatives discussed.  From time to time persons affiliated with Zaner, or its associated companies, may have positions in recommended and other derivatives.


08/28/2015 waiting for fresh signal

Posted on 8/31/2015 1:08:16 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

SEE CHART


08/21/2015 Crude oil sell signal

Posted on 8/31/2015 11:30:51 AM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

SEE CHART


OPTIONS PLAY: Crude Oil Rallies Big Time

Posted on 8/30/2015 10:15:59 AM by: Matt McKinney, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0115.

Direct-312-277-0115, http://www.mmckinneyfutures.com/

TRADING COMMODITY FUTURES AND OPTIONS INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR CIRCUMSTANCES, KNOWLEDGE AND FINANCIAL RESOURCES.

 

OPTIONS PLAY: Crude Oil Rallies Big Time

Clearly the Crude Oil market has bottomed out as what was once a short squeeze has now become a "war premium". 

 

Fundamentally, October crude oil futures prices have rallied from a low on August 24 of $37.75/barrel to a high on August 28 of $45.90/barrel. That's about $8/barrel in a matter of 4 days. Whoo-wee, that's like a rocket shooting off of a launching pad. Or a clown being shot out of a cannon. Or a bomb from Dan Marino to one of the "Marks Brothers". As in Mark Duper or Mark Clayton, the Wide Receivers who caught a ton of passes from the rocket-like arm of Hall Of Fame quarterback Dan Marino of the Miami Dolphins in the 80's. Bottom line is Crude shot up lightening quick with warp like speed.

The cause of this move from a fundamental stand point doesn't make a lot of sense other than the "war premium" caused by the Saudi's attacking Yemen, which in and of itself should not impact oil production. However, the Saudi's don't attack anyone very often. On the other hand, the fundamentals are still very bearish in  my view. Here in the U.S. we are sitting on or near record supplies of Crude, not including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve or SPR. Then, in terms of production here in the U.S., we are well above last years pace and the ten year average. Also, OPEC nations are pumping Crude like it's going out of style. Everyone wants their market share of $35-$45/barrel Crude oil it seems. I even read or heard somewhere that OPEC can make money with $15/barrel pricing. I'm not sure if there is any truth to that, but I will say that I think this rapid rise in Crude Oil prices is shady and unsustainable. I say this because of the fundamentals, but then again when do these matter when the funds and "big money" start buying?


 

Technically, on the daily chart below I have placed my favorite technical indicators.  I call it the "10/20/50/BB/ Trend Finder" strategy. They are the 10 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, red line), the 20 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, green line), and the 50 day Simple Moving Average (SMA, royal blue line). I have also added the Bollinger Bands (BB's, light blue shaded area) and Candlesticks (red and green bars), each bar represents one day of trading on the daily chart.

On the daily chart below, the October Crude Oil market was in what I have coined a "PRINCIPAL-TREND" down, which is the strongest from of a trend that the "10/20/50/BB Trend Finder" can show. However, this all changed when on August 27 the market rallied significantly higher and closed above the first area of resistance on the chart, the 10 day SMA (red line). Then, showing tremendous follow through on the very next trading day August 28 the market rallied up, through, and closed above the next area of resistance the 20 day SMA (green line).

Now it would appear that the next area of resistance according to my "10/20/50/BB Trend-Finder" strategy would be the top line of the BB's or Bollinger Bands at about $47/barrel. Then after that the 50 day SMA (royal blue line) at about $49/barrel could be the next and final area of resistance according to my "10/20/50/BB Trend-Finder" strategy. Although, I just don't see it happening especially right away. I believe we will see a pull back after things settle down with the Saudi's and on pure profit taking alone. Remember, we just witnessed a major move higher in just a few days.

I figured this out by placing my favorite indicators on the charts and studying them which I found at: http://www.markethead.com/2.0/free_trial.asp?ap=mmckinne , which is a web application that we have developed for our clients called MARKETHEAD where I get about 80% of all my research from most of the time. That means I get both technical and fundamental research from this web app and I am a veteran series 3 Broker of 15 years. So if I'm using it then maybe my readers should check it out. Yes? 

 

Daily October crude oil chart

  

OPTION PLAY:  

For exact details on other types of trading strategies, risk, months, expiration dates, strike prices, and number of positions feel free to contact me at 312-277-0115 or mmckinney@zaner.com. In addition, I am by no means "married" to a market. I like to make trade recommendations to my clients in the direction of the existing trend whether the market be the precious metals, currencies, financials, softs, grains and more.

  

FREE QUOTE- "Everybody wants to go to Heaven, but no one wants to die to get there!" -B.B. King

 

FUTURES, OPTIONS AND FOREX TRADING IS SPECULATIVE IN NATURE AND INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THESE RECOMMENDATIONS ARE A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING INTO DERIVATIVES TRANSACTIONS. ALL KNOWN NEWS AND EVENTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN FACTORED INTO THE PRICE OF THE UNDERLYING DERIVATIVES DISCUSSED. FROM TIME TO TIME PERSONS AFFILIATED WITH ZANER, OR ITS ASSOCIATED COMPANIES, MAY HAVE POSITIONS IN RECOMMENDED AND OTHER DERIVATIVES.

 

FOR CUSTOMERS TRADING OPTIONS, THESE FUTURES CHARTS ARE PRESENTED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. THEY ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HOW INVESTING IN OPTIONS CAN DEPEND ON THE UNDERDLYING FUTURES PRICES; SPECIFICALLY, WHETHER OR NOT AN OPTION PURCHASER IS BUYING AN IN-THE-MONEY, AT-THE-MONEY, OR OUT-OF-THE MONEY OPTION. FURTHERMORE, THE PURCHASER WILL BE ABLE TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT TO EXERCISE HIS RIGHT ON AN OPTION DEPENDING ON HOW THE OPTION'S STICKE PRICE COMPARES TO THE UNDERLYING FUTURE'S PRICE. THE FUTURES CHARTS ARE NOT INTENDED TO IMPLY THAT OPTION PRICES MOVE IN TANDEM WITH FUTURES PRICES. IN FACT OPTIONS PRICES MAY ONLY MOVE A LITTLE.

THE LIMITED RISK CHARACTERISTIC OF OPTIONS REFERS TO LONG OPTIONS ONLY AND REFERS TO THE AMOUNT OF THE LOSS, WHICH IS DEFINED AS THE PREMIUM PAID ON THE OPTION(S) PLUS COMMISSIONS.


08/21/2015 Crude oil sell signal

Posted on 8/27/2015 12:53:09 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

SEE CHART


08/21/2015 Crude oil sell signal

Posted on 8/27/2015 12:52:01 PM by: Larry Baer, Market Strategist @ Zaner. 312-277-0112.

SEE CHART


Posted on 8/26/2015 6:38:05 AM by: Rick Alexander, VP, Trading @ Zaner. 312-277-0107.

 


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